France Vs Croatia
FIFA World Cup Russia 2018: Knockout Phase, Final
Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow, Russia
Sunday, 14 July 2018 11:00AM EST FOX
It’s the main event, the World Cup Final! For a month we’ve had the pleasure and privilege to watch many of the world’s best players and national teams square off in an attempt to reach this day. But, ultimately only two teams, not 32, can play for the right to hoist sports’ most coveted prize, the Jules Rimet trophy. This year’s final includes one favorite in France and one cinderella in Croatia. So, how’d these teams get here? Who has the edge once kickoff commences? Who’ll win Russia 2018? All these questions will be answered as we gear up for today’s spectacle.
Routes to the Final
France
Les Bleus topped Group C in rather unconvincing fashion. A pair of one goal wins against Australia (winning goal was an own goal) and Peru, and a lackluster, just don’t lose approach, draw against Denmark, led to seven points and advancement to the knockouts. In the Round of 16, the French faced a shambolic Argentina, and to Les Bleus’ credit, they took advantage thanks to young bucks Kylian Mbappe and Benjamin Pavard. Still though, France only won by a goal (4-3), and they were actually losing 2-1 early in the second half. Things improved more so against Uruguay in the quarterfinals, albeit against an Edinson Cavani-less Los Charruas. Les Bleus won 2-0, they're first and only multi-goal victory. Then came the semifinal where France was expecting to face the Selecao, but instead were set to square off against Belgium, thanks to the Red Devils’ upset of Brazil. Belgium had the edge in possession against the French, but Les Bleus pulled a page out of Portugal’s EURO 2016 winning playbook by creating more chances via counter-attacks. In the end though, it was a set-piece goal that proved the difference as Barcelona’s Samuel Umtiti headed home a second half corner kick to send France into the Final on a 1-0 win.
Croatia
The Croats also topped their group, Group D, but in dominating fashion. Their tournament began with a decisive 2-0 victory over the Super Eagles of Nigeria. Then in match two, Croatia hit their peak against Argentina. The Vatrini (Blazers) flat out smashed Leo Messi and company to the tune of a 3-0 scoreline. Luka Modric netted his second goal in as many games with a wondrous strike from outside the penalty area. Then heading into matchday three, Croatia had already won the group, but instead of going through the motions like other squads in the final game of the Group Stage, the Croats put out a good lineup and stayed aggressive, ultimately beating Iceland 2-1. Onward to the knockouts, Croatia benefited by being in Group D and winning said group as they were situated on the easier side of the bracket, so we thought. It turned out that the Blazers suffered through the Round of 16 against Denmark, Quarterfinals against Russia, and Semifinals against England as all three matches went in to extra time, with the first two going to penalties. In addition, the Croats fell behind 1-0 in each game. It’s the first time in World Cup history that a nation has won three games that have reached extra time, as well as winning three matches in the knockouts when trailing in all of them. Needless to say, it’s ben a struggle for Croatia since the Group Stage, but some how, some way, they’ve survived and advanced, most recently thanks to Mario Mandzukic’s extra time winner.
Personnel / Tactical Advantages
Les Bleus have an advantage in nearly every area of the game. Starting from goal, France has the edge in net with Tottenham Hotspur #1 and captain Hugo Lloris. He’s considered by many as a top ten ‘keeper, plus his leadership skills, as he’s also France’s captain, are invaluable. In addition, Croatia’s goalkeeper, Danijel Subasic, suffered a hamstring injury against Russia. He appeared to be in fine fettle against England, but leg injuries can linger/creep back up from time to time. In defense, both squads set up with a back four. Whilst, Croatia has been sublime at the back so far this campaign, there’s no denying that Dejan Lovern and Domagoj Vida have a blunder or two in them, just Youtube Lovern at Liverpool or Vida for Besiktas against Bayern Munchen. Yikes. Conversely, Les Bleus have El Clasico rivals Umtii (Barca) and Raphael Varane (Madrid) manning the center back positions, enough said.
Moving to the midfield, this is one of two areas that Croatia could have the edge. It’ll be of necessity that Croatia wins this battle, but it wont be easy. Les Bleus features the world’s best defensive midfielder in N’Golo Kante, as well as, to date, the world’s most expensive midfielder in Paul Pogba, plus athletic and energetic Blaise Matuidi. For Croatia however, they possess the world’s best overall midfielder in Luka Modric. As was mentioned in a previous article, he finished 5th in the 2018 Ballon d’Or voting. In addition, the Vatrini have Barca do-it-all midfielder Ivan Rakitic, as well as another Galatico Mateo Kovacic, and lastly, two Inter Milan mids in Ivan Perisic and Marcelo Brozovic.
As for the forwards, France has the edge in a landslide. Les Bleus features center forward Olivier Giroud, second striker Antoine Griezmann, and wide-men Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. Meanwhile, Croatia only has center forward Mandzukic and Ante Rebic. France will threaten time and again via the counter through the blistering pace of Mbappe and Dembele, if he comes in as a sub, as well as through the air thanks to Giroud. The Croats will depend largely on the collective, as the midfielders actually supply much of the attack for the team. Modric pulls the strings and Perisic and Rakitic push forward to help out the two true forwards.
Lastly, as for mental and physical makeup, this could be finely balanced. The edge goes too Croatia for their gritty, never say die attitude. Surviving three extra time/penalty matches in a row is quite the feat, even if there’s a semblance of good fortune mixed in. In regards to physical makeup however, France has the clear advantage. Not only did Les Bleus get an extra day’s rest, but because the Croats played in three extra time games, the Vatrini has put in an extra 90 minutes of futbol. That’s a whole extra game’s worth of soccer. Therefore, it makes you wonder just how much the croats have left in the gas tank. Meanwhile, France will be as fresh as daisy.
LSB Prediction
It’s David versus Goliath. Cinderella versus World Cup heavyweight. When the match kicks off, Croatia, which sits at a population of just over 4 million, will become the second smallest nation to ever reach the World Cup Final, and the smallest nation since the very first World Cup in 1930 (Hosts nation Uruguay reached and won the WC). Conversely, France has a population of 67 million, and a World Cup pedigree of winning the title in ’98 and reaching a World Cup Final on three occasions over the past six tournaments (Most WC Final appearances of any nation during said span). As such, on the pitch, the resources are indicative of the size and stature of these two nations. Despite Croatia possessing unrivaled heart, determination, and Luka Modric (Best player on the pitch), ultimately the cream rises to the top, and that’s France. They're a young squad, tied for second youngest in the competition, but the quality in goal, defense, attack, and physical fitness, means Les Bleus will creative more chances, limit Croatia at the other end, and last the full 90 minutes en route to a second World Cup title. Viva la France. 2-0 France