By: Chris Lewnau
Failure: USA & Mexico
With CONMEBOL’s Copa America being held on North American soil, hopes were high for CONCACAF’s preeminent nations, the United States and Mexico, to get out of their respective groups, and make some noise in the knockout stage of the tournament. Yet, instead, that optimism appears to have been wishful thinking as both The Yanks and El Tri crashed out of the Copa America with third place finishes in the group stage.
For the Americans, they broke records en route to unfulfilling expectations. Most notably, according to Fox Sports, the United States is the first host nation of a Copa America to fail to advance to the knockout phase of the tournament. Wondering just how many Copas America there’ve been since the inception of the group/knockout rounds format? The answer is 19, including this 2024 edition. Simply put, embarrassing.
As for Mexico, they’re a shell of what they once were. The standout performers from the fabled “golden generation” that won the gold medal at the 2012 Summer Olympics, as well as those that followed shortly thereafter, have all retired from the national team, and it shows. The quality from players, such as Giovanni dos Santos, Raul Jimenez, Hector Herrera, Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, and many more, haven’t been replaced.
What’s worse for El Tri is that their youth academy is a shambles. The Under-23 Team has recently lost matches to Ivory Coast’s U-20 Team 4-1, Japan’s U-19 Team 3-1, and scraped past South Korea’s U-21 Team on penalty kicks after a 0-0 tie. Thus, the situation for El Tri is dire, and not just for the present, but for the future as well.
Afloat, But In Trouble: Brazil
Brazil, led by manager Dorival Junior, has underwhelmed thus far in the tournament. The Seleção, having produced just a win and two draws, looked pedestrian in the final third of the field this past Tuesday versus Columbia, despite the star-studded names of Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, and Raphinha leading the line. As indicative of their average performance, Brazil’s loan goal, whilst as dazzling as it was by Raphinha, didn’t come through the run of play. Rather, it was a one-off free kick strike by the Barcelona winger.
In totality, the fact that Brazil has struggled to score in open play is worrisome, especially since stiffer competition is upcoming with the knockout phase beginning tonight. The inconsistent run of form from back to front shouldn’t come as a surprise, however.
The Seleçao have been stuck in neutral since the start of 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying in September of 2023. As such, through six matchdays thus far, Brazil is 2-1-3, whilst occupying CONMEBOL’s sixth and final automatic berth slot. Therefore, the signs of mediocrity have been present for some time, many though, didn’t want to admit it. Why? Because it’s Brazil, the home of “o jogo bonito”.
Needless to say, with Brazil advancing to the knockout stage, the Seleçao has, thus far, stayed afloat. But, trouble looms large as a date with Copa America record-holders Uruguay is on tap this Saturday.
Knockout Stage: Preview & Predictions
Tonight the knockout stage is set to get underway with current titleholders Argentina squaring off against South American foe Ecuador. Unlike the Euros, which has a Round of 16, the Copa America jumps straight to the quarterfinals as only eight teams advance from the group stage.
Of the octuplet, six of the nations are from South America, and they are Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Meanwhile, just two countries come from North America, Canada and Panama. Amongst the remaining teams, Argentina is the clear betting favorite (+125), according to betMGM, followed by Brazil (+333), Columbia (+555), and Uruguay (+555).
Below are my predictions for the knockout phase. Hint: The champion will be from South America, sorry Canada and Panama.
Note: the numbering associated with each nation is said nation’s current FIFA world ranking.
Quarterfinals
1 Argentina over 30 Ecuador
54 Venezuela over 48 Canada
14 Uruguay over 4 Brazil
12 Columbia over 43 Panama
Semifinal
1 Argentina over 54 Venezuela
12 Columbia over 14 Uruguay
CONMEBOL Copa America Final
1 Argentina over 12 Columbia
Led by the greatest player of all-time, Leo Messi, Argentina will win its second consecutive Copa America. In the process, La Albiceleste will become just the second nation in the history of international football to win three consecutive major titles (e.g. Continental Championship followed by the World Cup followed by another Continental Championship). Currently the only nation to achieve this is Spain when La Roja won the European Championship in 2008, the World Cup in 2010, and the European Championship in 2012. Lastly, Argentina will separate itself from Uruguay, becoming the sole record-titleholder with 16 Copa America titles. Absolutely incredible.
Fun Factoids: Copa America
Note: Facts as of July 4th, 2024
(15) Boarding South American nations Argentina and Uruguay are co-titleholders with 15 Copa America victories.
(29) Argentina has appeared in a record 29 Copa America finals.
(34) Argentina has accrued a record 34 medals in the Copa America (15 Gold, 14 Silver, and 5 Bronze).
(17) Norberto Mendez (ARG) and Zizinho (BRA) have each scored a record 17 goals in Copa America fixtures.
(36) Leo Messi has played in a record 36 Copa America matches.
(6) As a player, Angel Romano (URU) has won a record 6 Copa America titles.
(6) As a manager, Guillermo Stabile (URU) has won a record 6 Copa America titles.
(18) Leo Messi has produced a record 18 assists in Copa America history.
(31) Leo Messi has produced a record 31 goal contributions (Goals + Assists) in Copa America history.
(4) Leo Messi has appeared in 4 Copa America finals.
(1) Leo Messi has won 1 Copa America title.
(0) interestingly, Pele and Diego Maradona have combined to win 0 Copa America championships.
(0) Surprisingly, Pele and Diego Maradona have combined to make 0 appearances in a Copa America final.